fix(prediction): add version tracking to prediction subsystem schema migrations
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The prediction subsystem previously created 8 tables at runtime without version tracking in separate SQLite databases (prediction.db, prediction_accuracy.db). This created schema drift issues where changes were unversioned and difficult to track. Changes: - Add prediction_schema_version table to prediction.db (model.go) - Add prediction_accuracy_schema_version table to prediction_accuracy.db (accuracy.go) - Convert migrate() functions to use versioned migrations (version 1) - All 8 tables now created through versioned migration system: - zone_transitions_history, transition_probabilities, dwell_times, person_zone_entry - recorded_predictions, accuracy_stats, zone_occupancy_patterns, zone_occupancy_history Closes: bf-38wcp
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jedarden
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2c8bbcf646
commit
3dd52861b3
3 changed files with 181 additions and 131 deletions
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@ -487,7 +487,6 @@ func migration_006_add_virtual_node_columns(tx *sql.Tx) error {
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return nil
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}
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// migration_007_add_webhook_tables adds webhook_log, trigger_state tables
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// and error_message/error_count columns to the triggers table.
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func migration_007_add_webhook_tables(tx *sql.Tx) error {
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@ -24,39 +24,39 @@ const MinPredictionsForAccuracy = 10
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// RecordedPrediction represents a prediction made at a specific time.
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type RecordedPrediction struct {
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ID string `json:"id"`
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PersonID string `json:"person_id"`
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PredictedAt time.Time `json:"predicted_at"`
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TargetTime time.Time `json:"target_time"` // When the prediction targets
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CurrentZoneID string `json:"current_zone_id"`
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PredictedZoneID string `json:"predicted_zone_id"` // Zone predicted at target time
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ActualZoneID string `json:"actual_zone_id,omitempty"` // Actual zone at target time (filled later)
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PredictionConfidence float64 `json:"prediction_confidence"`
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HorizonMinutes int `json:"horizon_minutes"`
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Evaluated bool `json:"evaluated"`
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Correct bool `json:"correct,omitempty"`
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EvaluatedAt time.Time `json:"evaluated_at,omitempty"`
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ID string `json:"id"`
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PersonID string `json:"person_id"`
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PredictedAt time.Time `json:"predicted_at"`
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TargetTime time.Time `json:"target_time"` // When the prediction targets
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CurrentZoneID string `json:"current_zone_id"`
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PredictedZoneID string `json:"predicted_zone_id"` // Zone predicted at target time
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ActualZoneID string `json:"actual_zone_id,omitempty"` // Actual zone at target time (filled later)
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PredictionConfidence float64 `json:"prediction_confidence"`
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HorizonMinutes int `json:"horizon_minutes"`
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Evaluated bool `json:"evaluated"`
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Correct bool `json:"correct,omitempty"`
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EvaluatedAt time.Time `json:"evaluated_at,omitempty"`
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}
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// AccuracyStats represents accuracy statistics for a person.
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type AccuracyStats struct {
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PersonID string `json:"person_id"`
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HorizonMinutes int `json:"horizon_minutes"`
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TotalPredictions int `json:"total_predictions"`
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CorrectPredictions int `json:"correct_predictions"`
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Accuracy float64 `json:"accuracy"`
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WindowStart time.Time `json:"window_start"`
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WindowEnd time.Time `json:"window_end"`
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LastUpdated time.Time `json:"last_updated"`
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MeetsTarget bool `json:"meets_target"` // true if accuracy >= 75%
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ConfusionMatrix map[string]map[string]int `json:"confusion_matrix,omitempty"` // actual -> predicted -> count
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PersonID string `json:"person_id"`
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HorizonMinutes int `json:"horizon_minutes"`
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TotalPredictions int `json:"total_predictions"`
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CorrectPredictions int `json:"correct_predictions"`
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Accuracy float64 `json:"accuracy"`
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WindowStart time.Time `json:"window_start"`
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WindowEnd time.Time `json:"window_end"`
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LastUpdated time.Time `json:"last_updated"`
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MeetsTarget bool `json:"meets_target"` // true if accuracy >= 75%
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ConfusionMatrix map[string]map[string]int `json:"confusion_matrix,omitempty"` // actual -> predicted -> count
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}
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// ZoneOccupancyPattern represents typical occupancy patterns for a zone.
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type ZoneOccupancyPattern struct {
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ZoneID string `json:"zone_id"`
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HourOfWeek int `json:"hour_of_week"`
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OccupancyProb float64 `json:"occupancy_probability"` // P(occupied | hour)
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OccupancyProb float64 `json:"occupancy_probability"` // P(occupied | hour)
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MeanDwellMinutes float64 `json:"mean_dwell_minutes"`
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StddevDwell float64 `json:"stddev_dwell_minutes"`
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SampleCount int `json:"sample_count"`
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@ -65,9 +65,9 @@ type ZoneOccupancyPattern struct {
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// AccuracyTracker tracks prediction accuracy over time.
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type AccuracyTracker struct {
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mu sync.RWMutex
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db *sql.DB
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path string
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mu sync.RWMutex
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db *sql.DB
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path string
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// Pending predictions awaiting evaluation
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pendingPredictions map[string]RecordedPrediction // id -> prediction
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@ -113,63 +113,88 @@ func NewAccuracyTracker(dbPath string) (*AccuracyTracker, error) {
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}
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func (t *AccuracyTracker) migrate() error {
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// Create prediction accuracy schema version tracking table
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_, err := t.db.Exec(`
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CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS recorded_predictions (
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id TEXT PRIMARY KEY,
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person_id TEXT NOT NULL,
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predicted_at INTEGER NOT NULL,
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target_time INTEGER NOT NULL,
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current_zone_id TEXT NOT NULL,
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predicted_zone_id TEXT NOT NULL,
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actual_zone_id TEXT,
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prediction_confidence REAL NOT NULL,
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horizon_minutes INTEGER NOT NULL,
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evaluated INTEGER NOT NULL DEFAULT 0,
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correct INTEGER DEFAULT 0,
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evaluated_at INTEGER
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CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS prediction_accuracy_schema_version (
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version INTEGER PRIMARY KEY,
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applied_at INTEGER NOT NULL DEFAULT (strftime('%s', 'now') * 1000)
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);
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CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_predictions_person ON recorded_predictions(person_id);
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CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_predictions_target ON recorded_predictions(target_time);
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CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_predictions_evaluated ON recorded_predictions(evaluated);
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CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_predictions_person_target ON recorded_predictions(person_id, target_time);
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CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS accuracy_stats (
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person_id TEXT NOT NULL,
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horizon_minutes INTEGER NOT NULL,
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total_predictions INTEGER NOT NULL,
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correct_predictions INTEGER NOT NULL,
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accuracy REAL NOT NULL,
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window_start INTEGER NOT NULL,
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window_end INTEGER NOT NULL,
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last_updated INTEGER NOT NULL,
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PRIMARY KEY (person_id, horizon_minutes)
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);
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CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS zone_occupancy_patterns (
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zone_id TEXT NOT NULL,
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hour_of_week INTEGER NOT NULL,
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occupancy_prob REAL NOT NULL,
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mean_dwell_minutes REAL NOT NULL,
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stddev_dwell REAL NOT NULL,
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sample_count INTEGER NOT NULL,
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last_computed INTEGER NOT NULL,
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PRIMARY KEY (zone_id, hour_of_week)
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);
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CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS zone_occupancy_history (
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id INTEGER PRIMARY KEY AUTOINCREMENT,
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zone_id TEXT NOT NULL,
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person_id TEXT,
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enter_time INTEGER NOT NULL,
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exit_time INTEGER,
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duration_minutes REAL
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);
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CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_occupancy_zone ON zone_occupancy_history(zone_id);
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CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_occupancy_enter ON zone_occupancy_history(enter_time);
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`)
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return err
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if err != nil {
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return err
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}
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// Check current version
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var currentVersion int
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err = t.db.QueryRow(`SELECT COALESCE(MAX(version), 0) FROM prediction_accuracy_schema_version`).Scan(¤tVersion)
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if err != nil {
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return err
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}
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// Version 1: initial accuracy tracking tables
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if currentVersion < 1 {
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_, err = t.db.Exec(`
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CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS recorded_predictions (
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id TEXT PRIMARY KEY,
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person_id TEXT NOT NULL,
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predicted_at INTEGER NOT NULL,
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target_time INTEGER NOT NULL,
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current_zone_id TEXT NOT NULL,
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predicted_zone_id TEXT NOT NULL,
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actual_zone_id TEXT,
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prediction_confidence REAL NOT NULL,
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horizon_minutes INTEGER NOT NULL,
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evaluated INTEGER NOT NULL DEFAULT 0,
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correct INTEGER DEFAULT 0,
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evaluated_at INTEGER
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);
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CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_predictions_person ON recorded_predictions(person_id);
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CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_predictions_target ON recorded_predictions(target_time);
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CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_predictions_evaluated ON recorded_predictions(evaluated);
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CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_predictions_person_target ON recorded_predictions(person_id, target_time);
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CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS accuracy_stats (
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person_id TEXT NOT NULL,
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horizon_minutes INTEGER NOT NULL,
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total_predictions INTEGER NOT NULL,
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correct_predictions INTEGER NOT NULL,
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accuracy REAL NOT NULL,
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window_start INTEGER NOT NULL,
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window_end INTEGER NOT NULL,
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last_updated INTEGER NOT NULL,
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PRIMARY KEY (person_id, horizon_minutes)
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);
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CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS zone_occupancy_patterns (
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zone_id TEXT NOT NULL,
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hour_of_week INTEGER NOT NULL,
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occupancy_prob REAL NOT NULL,
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mean_dwell_minutes REAL NOT NULL,
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stddev_dwell REAL NOT NULL,
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sample_count INTEGER NOT NULL,
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last_computed INTEGER NOT NULL,
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PRIMARY KEY (zone_id, hour_of_week)
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);
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CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS zone_occupancy_history (
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id INTEGER PRIMARY KEY AUTOINCREMENT,
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zone_id TEXT NOT NULL,
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person_id TEXT,
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enter_time INTEGER NOT NULL,
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exit_time INTEGER,
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duration_minutes REAL
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);
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CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_occupancy_zone ON zone_occupancy_history(zone_id);
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CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_occupancy_enter ON zone_occupancy_history(enter_time);
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INSERT INTO prediction_accuracy_schema_version (version) VALUES (1);
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`)
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if err != nil {
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return err
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}
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}
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return nil
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}
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func (t *AccuracyTracker) loadPendingPredictions() error {
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@ -15,13 +15,13 @@ import (
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// ZoneTransition represents a recorded zone transition event.
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type ZoneTransition struct {
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ID string `json:"id"`
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PersonID string `json:"person_id"`
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FromZoneID string `json:"from_zone_id"`
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ToZoneID string `json:"to_zone_id"`
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HourOfWeek int `json:"hour_of_week"` // 0-167: day_of_week * 24 + hour_of_day
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DwellDurationMinutes float64 `json:"dwell_duration_minutes"`
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Timestamp time.Time `json:"timestamp"`
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ID string `json:"id"`
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PersonID string `json:"person_id"`
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FromZoneID string `json:"from_zone_id"`
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ToZoneID string `json:"to_zone_id"`
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HourOfWeek int `json:"hour_of_week"` // 0-167: day_of_week * 24 + hour_of_day
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DwellDurationMinutes float64 `json:"dwell_duration_minutes"`
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Timestamp time.Time `json:"timestamp"`
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}
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// TransitionProbability represents the probability of transitioning from one zone to another.
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@ -100,52 +100,78 @@ func NewModelStore(dbPath string) (*ModelStore, error) {
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}
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func (s *ModelStore) migrate() error {
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// Create prediction schema version tracking table
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_, err := s.db.Exec(`
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CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS zone_transitions_history (
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id TEXT PRIMARY KEY,
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person_id TEXT NOT NULL,
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from_zone_id TEXT NOT NULL,
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to_zone_id TEXT NOT NULL,
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hour_of_week INTEGER NOT NULL,
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dwell_duration_minutes REAL NOT NULL DEFAULT 0,
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timestamp INTEGER NOT NULL
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);
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CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_transitions_person_time ON zone_transitions_history(person_id, hour_of_week);
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CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_transitions_from ON zone_transitions_history(from_zone_id);
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CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_transitions_timestamp ON zone_transitions_history(timestamp);
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CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS transition_probabilities (
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person_id TEXT NOT NULL,
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hour_of_week INTEGER NOT NULL,
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from_zone_id TEXT NOT NULL,
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to_zone_id TEXT NOT NULL,
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probability REAL NOT NULL,
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count INTEGER NOT NULL,
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last_computed INTEGER NOT NULL,
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PRIMARY KEY (person_id, hour_of_week, from_zone_id, to_zone_id)
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);
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CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS dwell_times (
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person_id TEXT NOT NULL,
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zone_id TEXT NOT NULL,
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hour_of_week INTEGER NOT NULL,
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mean_minutes REAL NOT NULL,
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stddev_minutes REAL NOT NULL,
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count INTEGER NOT NULL,
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last_computed INTEGER NOT NULL,
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PRIMARY KEY (person_id, zone_id, hour_of_week)
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);
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CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS person_zone_entry (
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person_id TEXT NOT NULL,
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zone_id TEXT NOT NULL,
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entry_time INTEGER NOT NULL,
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blob_id INTEGER NOT NULL,
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PRIMARY KEY (person_id, zone_id)
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CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS prediction_schema_version (
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version INTEGER PRIMARY KEY,
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applied_at INTEGER NOT NULL DEFAULT (strftime('%s', 'now') * 1000)
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);
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`)
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return err
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if err != nil {
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return err
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}
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// Check current version
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var currentVersion int
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err = s.db.QueryRow(`SELECT COALESCE(MAX(version), 0) FROM prediction_schema_version`).Scan(¤tVersion)
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if err != nil {
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return err
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}
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// Version 1: initial prediction tables
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if currentVersion < 1 {
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_, err = s.db.Exec(`
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CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS zone_transitions_history (
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id TEXT PRIMARY KEY,
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person_id TEXT NOT NULL,
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from_zone_id TEXT NOT NULL,
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to_zone_id TEXT NOT NULL,
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hour_of_week INTEGER NOT NULL,
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dwell_duration_minutes REAL NOT NULL DEFAULT 0,
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timestamp INTEGER NOT NULL
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);
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CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_transitions_person_time ON zone_transitions_history(person_id, hour_of_week);
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CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_transitions_from ON zone_transitions_history(from_zone_id);
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CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_transitions_timestamp ON zone_transitions_history(timestamp);
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CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS transition_probabilities (
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person_id TEXT NOT NULL,
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hour_of_week INTEGER NOT NULL,
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from_zone_id TEXT NOT NULL,
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to_zone_id TEXT NOT NULL,
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probability REAL NOT NULL,
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count INTEGER NOT NULL,
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last_computed INTEGER NOT NULL,
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PRIMARY KEY (person_id, hour_of_week, from_zone_id, to_zone_id)
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);
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CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS dwell_times (
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person_id TEXT NOT NULL,
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zone_id TEXT NOT NULL,
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hour_of_week INTEGER NOT NULL,
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mean_minutes REAL NOT NULL,
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stddev_minutes REAL NOT NULL,
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count INTEGER NOT NULL,
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last_computed INTEGER NOT NULL,
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PRIMARY KEY (person_id, zone_id, hour_of_week)
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);
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CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS person_zone_entry (
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person_id TEXT NOT NULL,
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zone_id TEXT NOT NULL,
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entry_time INTEGER NOT NULL,
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blob_id INTEGER NOT NULL,
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PRIMARY KEY (person_id, zone_id)
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);
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INSERT INTO prediction_schema_version (version) VALUES (1);
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`)
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if err != nil {
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return err
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}
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}
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return nil
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}
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func (s *ModelStore) loadFirstTransitionTime() {
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