76e8791e4d
- arena/arena.go: 10-match mini-tournament running candidate as a local subprocess against diverse live opponents sampled across the rating distribution; AES-GCM secret decryption for opponent auth - arena/psro.go: Nash equilibrium computation for the 1×K meta-game; FictitiousPlayNash included for future K×K support - arena/winrate.go: Wilson-score 95% CI for win-rate calculation; draws counted as 0.5 wins - arena/gate.go: two-part promotion gate — Nash value ≥ threshold AND MAP-Elites niche fill or improvement; detailed reason strings - promoter/promoter.go: full promotion pipeline — bot source + Dockerfile + K8s Secret/Deployment/Service manifests, docker build, git commit/push (ArgoCD sync), kubectl readiness poll, bots-table INSERT, programs-table update; RetireBot and EnforcePolicy (rating threshold + population cap 50) - db/db.go: add bot_name / bot_secret migration columns - db/programs.go: ListPromoted, SetBotNameAndSecret, UnsetPromoted, GetByBotID, PromotedCount helpers for promotion/retirement lifecycle - main.go: evaluate and retire subcommands wiring arena + gate + promoter; remove unused island flag from evaluate - arena/arena_test.go: 21 unit tests covering Nash, Wilson CI, Gate logic, and selectDiverse opponent sampling - promoter/promoter_test.go: tests for Dockerfiles, bot-ID/secret generation, AES-GCM helpers, and K8s manifest templates Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
55 lines
1.5 KiB
Go
55 lines
1.5 KiB
Go
package arena
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import "math"
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// WinRateResult holds the observed win rate and its 95% Wilson score confidence interval.
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type WinRateResult struct {
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Wins int
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Total int // non-error matches only
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Rate float64 // observed win rate (0–1)
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Lower float64 // 95% CI lower bound
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Upper float64 // 95% CI upper bound
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}
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// WinRate computes the win rate and Wilson score 95% confidence interval
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// for wins out of total valid matches. When total == 0, all values are 0.5.
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//
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// Wilson score interval:
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//
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// center = (p̂ + z²/2n) / (1 + z²/n)
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// margin = z * sqrt(p̂(1-p̂)/n + z²/4n²) / (1 + z²/n)
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// CI = [center − margin, center + margin]
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//
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// Using z = 1.96 (95% two-tailed confidence).
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func WinRate(wins, total int) WinRateResult {
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if total == 0 {
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return WinRateResult{Rate: 0.5, Lower: 0.0, Upper: 1.0}
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}
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const z = 1.96 // 95% CI
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p := float64(wins) / float64(total)
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n := float64(total)
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z2 := z * z
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center := (p + z2/(2*n)) / (1 + z2/n)
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margin := z * math.Sqrt(p*(1-p)/n+z2/(4*n*n)) / (1 + z2/n)
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lower := math.Max(0, center-margin)
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upper := math.Min(1, center+margin)
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return WinRateResult{
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Wins: wins,
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Total: total,
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Rate: p,
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Lower: lower,
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Upper: upper,
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}
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}
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// ComputeFromResult builds a WinRateResult from a tournament Result.
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// Only non-error matches are counted; draws count as 0.5 wins.
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func ComputeFromResult(r *Result) WinRateResult {
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total := r.Wins + r.Losses + r.Draws
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// Count draws as half-wins for the rate; wins/total integers use integer wins.
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return WinRate(r.Wins, total)
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}
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