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Phase 10: §3.7 chronicles - Update story arc detection to exact specs

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- detectComebackArcs: Now detects bottom 25% → top 25% climb (was peak→trough→recovery)
- detectRivalryArcs: Now detects 10+ total meetings grudge matches (was 5+ recent matches)
- detectUpsetArcs: Now detects bottom-10 beats top-10 (was biggest ELO gap)
- Updated narrative prompts to reflect new comeback arc specification
- Updated weekly chronicles prompt for comeback arcs

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
jedarden 2026-05-08 15:07:05 -04:00
parent bc857d10bc
commit 0e6a4977b6
1 changed files with 103 additions and 49 deletions
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152
cmd/acb-index-builder/narrative.go
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@ -353,7 +353,8 @@ func buildNarrativePrompt(req NarrativeRequest) string {
if req.BotRank > 0 {
sb.WriteString(fmt.Sprintf("Current rank: #%d\n", req.BotRank))
}
sb.WriteString(fmt.Sprintf("ELO: peaked at %d, fell to trough, recovered to %d\n", req.RatingStart, req.RatingEnd))
sb.WriteString("Story: Climbed from bottom 25%% of leaderboard to top 25%%\n")
sb.WriteString(fmt.Sprintf("Current ELO: %d\n", req.RatingEnd))
if req.Archetype != "" {
sb.WriteString(fmt.Sprintf("Archetype: %s\n", req.Archetype))
}
@ -364,13 +365,27 @@ func buildNarrativePrompt(req NarrativeRequest) string {
if m.Won {
outcome = "Beat"
}
sb.WriteString(fmt.Sprintf(" - %s %s (ELO %d) — score %s, %d turns. Match ID: %s\n",
outcome, m.OpponentName, m.OpponentRating, m.Score, m.TurnCount, m.MatchID))
rankStr := ""
if m.OpponentRank > 0 {
rankStr = fmt.Sprintf(", #%d", m.OpponentRank)
}
sb.WriteString(fmt.Sprintf(" - %s %s (ELO %d%s) — score %s, %d turns. Match ID: %s\n",
outcome, m.OpponentName, m.OpponentRating, rankStr, m.Score, m.TurnCount, m.MatchID))
if m.CriticalMoment != "" {
sb.WriteString(fmt.Sprintf(" Turning point: %s\n", m.CriticalMoment))
}
}
}
if len(req.HeadToHead) > 0 {
sb.WriteString("Head-to-head records (season context):\n")
for _, h := range req.HeadToHead {
rankStr := ""
if h.OpponentRank > 0 {
rankStr = fmt.Sprintf(", ranked #%d", h.OpponentRank)
}
sb.WriteString(fmt.Sprintf(" vs %s%s: %dW-%dL (%d matches)\n", h.OpponentName, rankStr, h.Wins, h.Losses, h.TotalMatches))
}
}
case ArcSeasonRecap:
sb.WriteString("Arc type: Season Narrative\n")
@ -556,13 +571,11 @@ func detectFallArcs(data *IndexData) []StoryArc {
func detectRivalryArcs(data *IndexData) []StoryArc {
arcs := make([]StoryArc, 0)
weekAgo := data.GeneratedAt.AddDate(0, 0, -7)
pairData := make(map[string]*struct {
botAID, botBID string
aWins, bWins int
total int
weekA, weekB int
})
for _, m := range data.Matches {
@ -580,7 +593,6 @@ func detectRivalryArcs(data *IndexData) []StoryArc {
botAID, botBID string
aWins, bWins int
total int
weekA, weekB int
}{botAID: aID, botBID: bID}
}
pairData[key].total++
@ -597,15 +609,13 @@ func detectRivalryArcs(data *IndexData) []StoryArc {
pairData[key].bWins++
}
}
if m.PlayedAt.After(weekAgo) {
pairData[key].weekA++
}
}
}
}
for _, pd := range pairData {
if pd.weekA >= 5 && pd.aWins >= 2 && pd.bWins >= 2 {
// Grudge matches: 10+ total meetings
if pd.total >= 10 && pd.aWins >= 2 && pd.bWins >= 2 {
arcs = append(arcs, StoryArc{
Type: ArcRivalry,
BotID: pd.botAID,
@ -626,9 +636,24 @@ func detectRivalryArcs(data *IndexData) []StoryArc {
func detectUpsetArcs(data *IndexData) []StoryArc {
arcs := make([]StoryArc, 0)
var biggestUpset *StoryArc
var biggestGap int
if len(data.Bots) < 10 {
return arcs
}
// Get current top 10 and bottom 10 bot IDs
top10 := make(map[string]bool, 10)
bottom10 := make(map[string]bool, 10)
for i := 0; i < 10 && i < len(data.Bots); i++ {
top10[data.Bots[i].ID] = true
}
for i := len(data.Bots) - 10; i < len(data.Bots); i++ {
if i >= 0 {
bottom10[data.Bots[i].ID] = true
}
}
// Find matches where bottom-10 beat top-10
for _, m := range data.Matches {
if len(m.Participants) < 2 {
continue
@ -647,10 +672,9 @@ func detectUpsetArcs(data *IndexData) []StoryArc {
continue
}
gap := int(loser.PreMatchRating - winner.PreMatchRating)
if gap > biggestGap {
biggestGap = gap
biggestUpset = &StoryArc{
// Check if winner was bottom-10 and loser was top-10
if bottom10[winner.BotID] && top10[loser.BotID] {
arcs = append(arcs, StoryArc{
Type: ArcUpset,
BotID: winner.BotID,
BotName: getBotName(winner.BotID, data),
@ -664,19 +688,18 @@ func detectUpsetArcs(data *IndexData) []StoryArc {
OpponentID: loser.BotID,
OpponentName: getBotName(loser.BotID, data),
OpponentRating: int(loser.PreMatchRating),
OpponentRank: getBotRank(loser.BotID, data),
MapName: m.MapName,
Score: fmt.Sprintf("%d-%d", winner.Score, loser.Score),
TurnCount: m.TurnCount,
Won: true,
EndCondition: m.EndCondition,
CriticalMoment: summarizeCriticalMoment(m, winner, loser),
}},
}
})
}
}
if biggestUpset != nil && biggestGap >= 100 {
arcs = append(arcs, *biggestUpset)
}
return arcs
}
@ -730,40 +753,71 @@ func detectEvolutionArcs(data *IndexData) []StoryArc {
func detectComebackArcs(data *IndexData) []StoryArc {
arcs := make([]StoryArc, 0)
if len(data.Bots) < 4 {
return arcs
}
// Calculate quartile thresholds
bottomQuartileCutoff := len(data.Bots) / 4
topQuartileStart := len(data.Bots) - (len(data.Bots) / 4)
for _, bot := range data.Bots {
if len(getBotRatingHistory(bot.ID, data)) < 3 {
currentRank := getBotRank(bot.ID, data)
if currentRank == 0 {
continue
}
currentRating := bot.Rating
var peakRating, troughRating float64
var foundDecline, foundRecovery bool
for i, rh := range getBotRatingHistory(bot.ID, data) {
if rh.Rating > peakRating {
peakRating = rh.Rating
// Check if bot is currently in top 25%
if currentRank < topQuartileStart {
// Look at rating history to see if bot was ever in bottom 25%
history := getBotRatingHistory(bot.ID, data)
if len(history) < 2 {
continue
}
if i > 0 && rh.Rating < getBotRatingHistory(bot.ID, data)[i-1].Rating {
if rh.Rating < troughRating || troughRating == 0 {
troughRating = rh.Rating
foundDecline = true
// Check if bot was in bottom 25% at some point in the past 30 days
monthAgo := data.GeneratedAt.AddDate(0, 0, -30)
var wasInBottomQuartile bool
for _, rh := range history {
if rh.RecordedAt.Before(monthAgo) {
continue
}
// Estimate historical rank by comparing rating to others at that time
// This is an approximation - we count how many current bots had higher ratings then
lowerCount := 0
for _, otherBot := range data.Bots {
if otherBot.ID == bot.ID {
continue
}
otherHistory := getBotRatingHistory(otherBot.ID, data)
var otherRatingAtTime float64
for _, orh := range otherHistory {
if orh.RecordedAt.Before(rh.RecordedAt) || orh.RecordedAt.Equal(rh.RecordedAt) {
otherRatingAtTime = orh.Rating
}
}
if otherRatingAtTime > rh.Rating {
lowerCount++
}
}
historicalRank := lowerCount + 1
if historicalRank > bottomQuartileCutoff {
wasInBottomQuartile = true
break
}
}
}
if foundDecline && currentRating >= troughRating+150 {
foundRecovery = true
}
if foundRecovery {
arcs = append(arcs, StoryArc{
Type: ArcComeback,
BotID: bot.ID,
BotName: bot.Name,
RatingStart: int(peakRating),
RatingEnd: int(currentRating),
KeyMatches: extractKeyMatches(bot.ID, data),
})
if wasInBottomQuartile {
arcs = append(arcs, StoryArc{
Type: ArcComeback,
BotID: bot.ID,
BotName: bot.Name,
RatingStart: 0, // Was in bottom quartile
RatingEnd: int(bot.Rating),
KeyMatches: extractKeyMatches(bot.ID, data),
})
}
}
}
@ -1113,8 +1167,8 @@ func buildWeeklyChroniclesPrompt(req WeeklyChroniclesRequest) string {
if len(comebackArcs) > 0 {
sb.WriteString("\n### Comebacks\n")
for _, arc := range comebackArcs {
sb.WriteString(fmt.Sprintf(" - %s: from trough back to %.0f after falling from %.0f\n",
arc.BotName, float64(arc.RatingEnd), float64(arc.RatingStart)))
sb.WriteString(fmt.Sprintf(" - %s: climbed from bottom 25%% to top 25%% (current ELO: %d)\n",
arc.BotName, arc.RatingEnd))
}
}